Investment benchmark: the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates six transmit the signal RMB assets or meet honeymoon

管理 / 2018-08-10

Dongfangcaifuwang summary of major market institutions and famous investment point of view, to help you seize investment opportunities。Ren Zeping think the Fed to raise interest rates six signal transfer, speed up the rate hike, the advent of a new cycle; Industrial Securities, said the Fed began to talk to "cut list", the market is expected to raise interest rates fell slightly in June。  [Macro] Fed to maintain 2017 and 2018 the number is expected to raise interest rates unchanged, in 2019 the number is expected to raise interest rates by a raised three times to four times before。At the meeting they discussed the "shrink table" issues but not yet made a decision, but the statement "will be a predictable way, step by step to shrink their balance sheets."。    Fed to raise interest rates in line with expectations, the number of 2017 to raise interest rates implied by the bitmap is still three times, no clear plan to shrink the table, less than market expectations, the global market carnival, the bulk of US debt, US stocks rose collective。Maintain "global liquidity inflection point", "the second half of the financial period" and "the next three years US interest rates 6-10 times," judgment is expected in 2017 there were two interest rate hikes。Prior to co-monarch macro-cycle strategy and team proposed hike of the day, when the change disk, and now boots landed on schedule, is expected to boost risk appetite and strong economic performance under the support, or usher in RMB assets honeymoon。    March rate hike has been fully anticipated, the market is expected to raise interest rates fell slightly in June; the market fully expected performance under the optimistic side: the dollar fell, US stocks, US bonds rise。    Current information from view, as long as the US economy maintains the current recovery path, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates three times this year, an increase of。But the Fed's view of the market's performance over the past two years, still tend to underestimate the path of Fed rate hike。In this still exist among the expected difference。While other developed economies, low probability of occurrence of monetary policy shift in the short term。Thus, while the short-term dollar index, there was a certain callback, but the full year, we believe that the appreciation of the dollar index is still space。    2017 mid-cycle inventory and capital expenditure cycle will bottom out private investment and manufacturing investment will be bottoming out, endogenous dynamics of industrial production will also be restored, China's economy endogenous growth momentum in the repair, the Chinese economy is not in mid-2017 pessimistic。  Rate [property] hot city to this crazy level today, then rushed reached, unless you are really in need of housing, unless you buy must buy school district room, unless you buy the north of Guangzhou deep in the heart of house, unless we use the foam once inflation to do it, otherwise, at this time, reached the market, chasing the high, very dangerous。    In recent years, a time when China's housing prices rose, there are two views will be widely circulated on social media。One is the "escape north Canton", high prices Forced personnel away from the first-tier cities; one is the "Useless", not as hard I have two rooms。  If the [stock market] in accordance with the 2010 – 2011 years of experience, is the preferred market consumer stocks "stagflation" phase configuration。With the Shanghai and Hong Kong through Hong Kong and Shenzhen through the gate opening in succession, the right to speak in overseas funds on consumer stocks (especially consumption leading shares) pricing has been significantly increased。    Period increased industry concentration, escalating consumption, profitability of listed companies in the medium-term upward inflection point the way to go, for 17 years A-share net profit up 8%, compared with 3% rise in 16 years。    As the economic environment continues to improve, the upcoming Fed rate hike will not change the direction of A shares "back into the second one", investors can feel at ease holding, waiting for the boot floor。    Guotai Junan recommendations, seize the super-cycle release of airline stocks, benefiting the real estate cycle home / home improvement industry; global demand gradually warm to benefit layout construction machinery, non-ferrous and petrochemical demand expansion; promote supply-side reform, accelerate the clearing industry leading premium opportunities, key configuration paper, colored; the theme, the "new" breakthrough investment growth path, the new space: along the way, the new model: defend the blue sky, a new balance: SOE reform, Guizhou theme, new momentum: the tenth anniversary of Apple。    The two sessions delivered to the community out of a continuous development and innovation, rising major power。For investors, this year will be a year full of opportunities, upgrade of consumption, investment in infrastructure, the three pillars of new industries, the supply-side reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises to release economic vitality, "along the way", the China FTA was better "to go out. "。Policy direction along the two sessions, the selection of high-quality companies in related fields would be beneficial to get a good return on investment。    From Taishiyanpan, we believe that red envelope market close, the market is currently in shock interval along。Outlook from key nodes contradiction at the heart of monetary liquidity tightening, the trade deficit is of great concern variables also affect currency liquidity。Plate, relatively optimistic about the medicine, the leading line of consumer goods, household brand into a number of leading blue chip stocks represented more along the way and recommend reform of state-owned enterprises on the plate。Finally add that we believe that banking stocks may be a good long-term funding arrangement direction。  [Bond] since March, the money supply is still tight, but demand for funds has dropped slightly, the overall supply and demand of funds continue to maintain a tight balance。    Since 12 years, the downgrade of cases there is a trend of rising。Down regulated more years, but the number was lowered rising trend。5,6 rating changes mostly concentrated in July。  [Commodity] Macquarie Group (Macquarie) Tuesday (March 14) released the report, along with China, the largest buyer of raw materials Wujin wallet, coupled with increased supply, commodity market in March has shown signs of strain I am afraid this will be paving the way for iron ore and copper prices dropped in the second half of。    US investment research firm Buddha Lu Group (LeutholdGroup) Ramsey, chief investment officer (DougRamsey) said that from the point of view of energy stocks, may fall to $ 30。Energy stocks in the past had been warning of the decline in the crude oil market。    Gold producer OceanaGold CEO MickWilkes Wednesday (March 15) said in a report, as the US economy accelerates, the current North American investors are starting to consider the impact of inflation in the United States, the inflation outlook is expected this will stimulate the price of gold rise。Wilkes is expected within the next 18 months the price of gold is expected to rise to $ 1350-1400 / ounce。He stressed that bad compared to the price of those factors, the more factors that could support stronger gold price。  [Currency] Credit Agricole (Credit Agricole) on Wednesday (March 15) the author analyzed for the resolution this week, the Bank of England sterling performance and outlook。In terms of market position, the bank data continue to show "investors hold relatively balanced position," which means that the current level of the pound should not be seen as oversold。Therefore, do not rule out the risk of short-term sterling continue down。    UK-based negotiations off to Europe increased uncertainty, Scotland once again called for a referendum on independence and external factors pushing up commodity prices and other factors, we recommend investors based on these three factors short GBP / AUD。    North SEB Bank (SEB) on Wednesday (March 15) the author analyzed for the pound。Taking into account the analysis and the British exit from the euro-than-expected UK economic growth, we believe the pound next major market is still under pressure a few months down the main。    Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) and macro, senior currency strategist BipanRai Tuesday (March 15) said in a report, the European elections are exaggerated risk, investors began to do more thinking time to policy euro。