Low prices persist operation in the first quarter CPI rose or significantly below market expectations

管理 / 2018-08-12

Recent prices continue to remain low running。"Economic Information Daily" correspondent comprehensive multi forecast, in March 2017 () or similar with the previous month, still at significantly lower levels in the first quarter CPI rose or significantly below market expectations。  The Commerce Department reported weekly consumption price index, March poultry, eggs, vegetables and aquatic products and other major agricultural prices, in addition to the chain of aquatic products remained stable outside the ring than the other three products have suffered different degrees of decline。From the National Bureau of Statistics released the 50 cities the average price changes in major food situation, March 1 to 20 major basic food prices also fell mainly。  Based on the above data, chief economist Lian Ping, it is expected this month, food prices have come down significantly from last month, about 2 drops.5 points。  Non-food prices, the NDRC consecutive month cut prices, or prices will push down traffic, but after the Spring Festival travel, clothing and other non-food prices have suffered or narrowed。  Jiang Chao, chief economist also said that food prices continued to fall since March, March's CPI forecast stable at 1.1% low。It is noteworthy that, in February CPI to drop while the industrial producer price index () rose from differentiation of industrial and agricultural prices since March this pattern has not changed。  Lian Ping also said that in mid-2017 first quarter CPI rose significantly lower than market expectations, to explain in the context of capacity, rapid recovery of the PPI and CPI is not effectively transmitted to。In addition, although the current hot investment in infrastructure, but consumption growth slowed in January and February can be seen, consumer demand has not significantly warmer, but there are signs of a slowdown。  But the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Yun, chief economist of view, do not have to worry too much about inflation differentiation phenomenon。He said that in February this year, the PPI is likely to be a high point, with the price factor increase and decrease hikes, CPI will moderate in February after rising between the two so-called price index " scissors "will shrink。  Zhou Jingtong Institute of International Finance said that with the disappearance of seasonal factors, CPI inflation will gradually return to the main stage dominated by structural factors, which means that the next few months the CPI rose a slight rebound, and rebound the range is limited, the future should special attention to education, health care, and housing prices。  In addition, although the recent decline into a character, but the industry believes that this year during May to June, crude oil prices are expected to move up, and the crude oil price growth has a high correlation between PPI and CPI will also be affected or。(Original title: food prices to oil prices pulled down the main transport prices CPI in March or continue to remain low) (Editor: DF155)