Shimao (600823): Revenue and profit increase slightly and use this as a raw material target

The results of the first quarter to the third quarter of FY19 were slightly lower than our expected results announced by the company: operating income of US $ 15.1 billion, an annual increase of 5%; net profit attributable to mothers of US $ 1.5 billion, an increase of 4%, corresponding to zero diluted earnings.

41 yuan, slightly lower than expected.

  The increase in the proportion of minority shareholders’ profit and loss resulted in negative net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter.

In the third quarter, the company’s operating income increased by 1%, and its gross profit margin increased to 34% (compared to 16% in the same period last year). However, the proportion of minority shareholders’ profit and loss to net profit increased to 122%, resulting in a net profit of -0.

400 million US dollars, which dragged down the first three quarters of net profit attributable to mothers 3% lower than the first half.

  The change in operating cash increased rapidly, and cash in hand fell by more than 30%.

Due to the acceleration of land acquisition, 西安耍耍网 the company’s net operating cash flow in the first three quarters decreased by US $ 3.3 billion (repeated by US $ 2.8 billion in the same period last year), of which in the third quarter exceeded US $ 7.4 billion (inflow of US $ 2.3 billion in the same period last year).

Cash in hand at the end of the period decreased by 32% from the beginning of the year to 7 billion U.S. dollars, which is only equivalent to zero maturity and resistance within one year.

98 times (initial 1.

98 times).

At the end of the period, the company’s net debt ratio was 40% (at the beginning of the year / at the end of 1H19, respectively 21% / 19%).

The company started in October.

With a coupon rate of 24%, 10-digit medium-term notes (3-year maturities) were issued, and financing costs were low.

  The development trend preliminarily predicts that the feed is below the sales target.

The company’s contracted sales area in the first three quarters decreased by 27% to 770,000 square meters, and it gradually decreased by 19% to US $ 16.2 billion before and after the contract.82% / 71% / 74% of the minimum budget), we expect the company’s initial investment at 230?
Between 28 billion yuan, below the company’s 30 billion sales target.

  Land acquisition speeded up, but the proportion of land acquisition equity dropped significantly.

The company added 570,000 square meters of equity land in Chongqing, Jinan, and Zibo in the third quarter, an increase of 34% over the first half, and the equity ratio was only 26% (51% in the first half).2.1 billion yuan, the average land acquisition cost of 3705 yuan / square meter, equivalent to 19% of the average sales price over the same period.

The company’s new construction area in the first three quarters increased by 68% annually to 1.51 million square meters.

  Earnings Forecasts and Estimates Taking into account the increase in the proportion of minority shareholders’ equity, we cut our 2019/2020 earnings forecast to 2% / 7% to 0.

70/0.

78 yuan.

The company is currently leading the trade at 6.

1/5.

5x 2019/2020 forecast P / E ratio.

Maintain Neutral rating and lower TP by 3% to 4.

18 yuan (mainly due to the lower-than-expected sales), corresponding to 6.

0/5.

5 times the target price-earnings ratio for 2019/2020, which continues to be 2 in recent times.

3% downside.

  The layout of risk focus cities is lower than expected; the company’s cash flow is under pressure.